The real formulas behind the scoreboard
The NFL passer rating is four capped components over six times a hundred — the page shows each component so 158.3 stops being magic. Dice odds are computed by exact enumeration, not simulation: every one of the 46,656 outcomes of 6d6 is counted. Lottery odds are honest combinatorics: C(69,5) × 26.
Probability intuitions worth fixing
Five heads in a row is 1-in-32, but the sixth flip is still 50-50 — streaks describe the past, not the next event. And an ace in a five-card poker hand is about 30%, one of the most underestimated numbers in cards.
Worked example
- A quarterback: 320/480, 3,800 yards, 28 TD, 10 INT.
- Completion component: (0.667−0.3)×5 = 1.833.
- Yards: (7.92−3)×0.25 = 1.229; TDs: 20×0.0583 = 1.167.
- INTs: 2.375−25×0.0208 = 1.854 → rating ≈ 101.4.
How to use it
- Pick the sport or game tool from the dropdown.
- Enter your numbers — presets load famous cases.
- Read the result and the exact formula beneath.
- For dice, roll again by changing any field.